ABSTRACT
On 19 September 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that asymptomatic individuals, those who have close contact with infected person, be tested. Also, American society for biological clinical comments on testing of asymptomatic individuals. So, we proposed a new mathematical model for evaluating the population-level impact of contact rates (social-distancing) and the rate at which asymptomatic people are hospitalized (isolated) following testing due to close contact with documented infected people. The model is a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations that is fitted and parameterized by least square curve fitting using COVID-19 pandemic data of Pakistan from 1 October 2020 to 30 April 2021. The fractional derivative is used to understand the biological process with crossover behavior and memory effect. The reproduction number and conditions for asymptotic stability are derived diligently. The most common non-integer Caputo derivative is used for deeper analysis and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 infection. The fractional-order Adams-Bashforth method is used for the solution of the model. In light of the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in terms of social distancing and isolation are being investigated. The reduction in the baseline value of contact rates and enhancement in hospitalization rate of symptomatic can lead the elimination of the pandemic.
ABSTRACT
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a life-threatening post-infectious complication occurring unpredictably weeks after mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. We profiled MIS-C, adult COVID-19, and healthy pediatric and adult individuals using single-cell RNA sequencing, flow cytometry, antigen receptor repertoire analysis, and unbiased serum proteomics, which collectively identified a signature in MIS-C patients that correlated with disease severity. Despite having no evidence of active infection, MIS-C patients had elevated S100A-family alarmins and decreased antigen presentation signatures, indicative of myeloid dysfunction. MIS-C patients showed elevated expression of cytotoxicity genes in NK and CD8+ T cells and expansion of specific IgG-expressing plasmablasts. Clinically severe MIS-C patients displayed skewed memory T cell TCR repertoires and autoimmunity characterized by endothelium-reactive IgG. The alarmin, cytotoxicity, TCR repertoire, and plasmablast signatures we defined have potential for application in the clinic to better diagnose and potentially predict disease severity early in the course of MIS-C.